Some economists and sociologists predict that in the near future, China may replace United States as the world's economic power. Do you think this may happen?
It will take time, but China will economically catch up with the US. The factor that can catch up is China's population. China's population is now 1.4 billion, the number one in the world, four times more than the United States. Based on China's large population, economic growth has been achieved through inexpensive labor since the 1990s, and now China is preparing for the upcoming fourth industrial era by investing heavily in high-tech industries. There are more researchers than other countries for investment and research in the 4th industry, and even though the per capita GDP is low, the country's large number of people can have one big national economy.
Another factor is the flow of economic growth. As of 2019, China's economic growth rate was 6.11%, and the US was 2.33%. The United States has passed an era of high growth and is in an era of low growth, but China still has room for growth. China's five-year average economic growth rate is 6%, showing steadily high economic growth rate, revealing the possibility of future development.
However, it will take some time for China to catch up with the US economic power with the US checks against China's economic growth. Recently there has been a trade war between the United States and China. The trade conflict that lasted from 2018 to 2019 began when U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order that could impose high tariffs on Chinese products. The trade war between the two countries, which began with tariffs, has since expanded to technical issues due to the US' Huawei sanctions and China's implications for restricting exports of rare earths. The trade conflict, which has since spread to the exchange rate war, entered a state of armistice on October 11, 2019 when the two countries reached a partial agreement in trade negotiations.
The political, economic and cultural influence of the United States will also hinder China's becoming a global economic powerhouse. Currently, the key currency of the world is the US dollar, which enjoys many privileges. The main reason the U.S. current account deficit can be sustained is due to the excessive perk that all funds flow in U.S. dollars. The United States will not hand over these privileges to China. America's influence within international organizations cannot be ignored. The influence of the United States within the various organizations around the world is strong, and it is expected that it will take a long time for China to become a global economic power, as the international order operates within this influence.
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